Economics

Posted in: Economics
OECD Reports that trade flows weaken in third quarter 2008
By AMP
Jan 28, 2009 - 12:10:00 PM

Merchandise export volumes of the OECD Group of Seven countries fell 0.2% in the third quarter of 2008 compared with the previous quarter, while import volumes rose 0.4%. On a year-on-year basis, import volumes fell 1.4% in the third quarter, the first decline since the third quarter of 2006. Exports rose by only 1.9%, their lowest growth rate since the third quarter of 2006.

While Germany’s exports fell by a marked 2.9% quarter-on-quarter, import volume growth picked up by 3.4%, the highest rate of the G7. On a year-on-year basis, exports stagnated at 0.5% and imports grew by 3.5%.  Italy's exports also fell by 2.9% compared with the previous quarter.

In the United States, export volume growth, at 1.8%, remained positive in the third quarter, while imports declined by 0.7%. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, export growth in the US, at 8.3%, continued to be the highest of the G7, while import volumes continued to decline, falling 3.6%. France's exports increased by 3.6% in the 3rd quarter, although the comparison was against a poor 2nd quarter.

Falls continued in Japan where exports were down 1.3% and imports 1.0% lower in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of 2007, merchandise exports stagnated at 0.2%, the lowest rate since the third quarter of 2006, while imports continued to decline, falling 1.3%.

When the comparison is made between the 3rd quarter figures for 2008, compared to the 3rd quarter of 2007, which is could be argued gives a better view of events, Canada's exports fell by 5.8%, Italy's by 4.6% and the UK's by 0.9%, in contrast the US saw export increases of 8.3%, France of 3.9%, Germany 0.5% and Japan 0.2%. Looking at the two sets of figures, it appears that Italy is now the weakest member of the OECD in terms of its export performance, although Canada's position is troubling, and the US and France are the strongest.