In the period from July to September we enjoyed an extended lull from piracy attacks off Somalia, because the weather was too rough for boarding vessels at sea from small boats.  Since the Eid celebrations in mid-September we have seen a steady increase in pirate activity in the north-eastern waters of the Indian Ocean. The hijacking of the Pacific International Lines container vessel, “Kota Wajar” on the 15^th October marks the start of the full blown 2009/2010 Pirate Season, the earlier attacks on merchant ships, and the taking of the Spanish trawler the Alakrana, were merely the initial skirmishes in this campaign.

The monsoon period allowed the American officer, Rear Admiral Bener, to say in August that, "We have already decreased pirate activity in the Somali Basin and we are hoping to see a decrease in the Gulf of Aden."  To say the least his words were optimistic, and we think were entirely misleading.

The information that IML has is that the situation with regard to the planning and operation of piracy attacks from Somalia, the Yemen and the Seychelles forward operations bases (FOBs) has become more complex and we believe that over the next few months there will be a significant increase in pirate attacks in the area. There is also the possibility that the attacks may become more violent and that there may be real threats to the life and limb of hostages held in Somalia for long periods.

The situation in Somalia is never simple, and today, to quote Churchill, it really is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma”.

There are a number of factors at work in the area and the way in which they interact will determine outcomes, there is no simple cause and effect at work, so no one “solution” can be found to solve the problem of Somali piracy.  The key points to bear in mind at present are:

1.       International naval forces have pushed pirate activity eastwards away from the Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea;

2.       The use of lethal force by international forces, particularly by the US and France, have raised the stakes, as far as the pirates are concerned, and IML is concerned that we will see an escalation of violence towards merchant ships’ crews;

3.       There have been recent large losses of Somali fishermen/pirates at sea, due in part to intertribal conflict, as well as weather problems;

4.       The Somalis have a particular hatred for foreign trawlers, especially for those from Spain, France and Taiwan, which they accuse of illegally fishing off Somalia;

5.       Interpol has reported the increasing involvement of organized criminal groups in piracy, IML is also aware that there has been considerable “investment” in piracy by high net worth individuals from the Middle East, this is leading to growing sophistication and the deployment of better equipment;

6.       The area from which pirates operate is no longer confined to Somalia; the southern coast of the Yemen and the Seychelles archipelago must also be considered “pirate territory”;

7.       Recent reports indicate that terrorism is a growing threat within Somalia and the Yemen’ and

8.       The continuing social, climatic, political and economic pressures within Somalia and the Yemen are making piracy an extremely attractive proposition for young men.

The fact is that there now a large number of actors in this drama, and each of these groups is potentially in conflict with the others.  The tribal nature of Somali society and the readiness with which inter-tribal conflicts are settled by violence is now intertwined with conflict between criminal groups, political and terrorism elements.  The recent shooting of Somali fishermen by other Somalis highlights the twists and turns of conflict in that country.

The situation is further complicated by the involvement of foreigners, fighting for factions within Somalia, and also supporting and supplying criminal operations.  If you want to visit Somalia you can fly into a number of destinations in Somalia on Jubba Airlines out of Sharjah, or Dubai. The regular arms shipments take the normal Ilyushin Il-76 flights.   But ironically the largest arms supplier to Somalia now appears to be the U.S. Government; The New York Times reported in September that the U.S. has shipped 40 tons of weapons to Somalia, to Sheik Sharif's government, a large part of which has ended up with al-Shabab, which the U.S. normally calls a terrorism organization.

In the last few weeks there has been conflict over fishing off the coast of Somalia, the Spanish trawler the Alakrana was taken on October 2^nd and two French trawlers, the Drennec & Glenan which were attacked north of the Seychelles on the 10^th October.  According to a report by AFP (14 Oct) a pirate spokesman, Abdi Yare, based in Harardhere village, where the Alakrana is anchored, said, "We also demand four million US dollars as a payment for illegally fishing in Somalia. After that we will release the fishing boat. Unless those conditions are met we will not make any deal," he said. He added, "The amount of fish they [the Spanish] have stolen from Somalia is more than the amount of the ransom we have demanded. Somali waters primarily to safeguard illegal fishing in unprotected waters. The ship we are holding is not a commercial vessel, it came to Somalia to steal our marine resources." Although it is easy to disregard such statements as self-serving, it is IML’s information that Abdi Yare was reflecting a commonly held view in Somalia, and that there is a strong dislike, if not hatred, of foreign fishing fleets, which Somalis believe have robbed their country of its fish stocks.

Johann Hari wrote in The Independent (London) on the 5^th January 2009 that more than US$300m-worth of tuna, shrimp, and lobster are being stolen every year by illegal trawlers. Reuters quoted Mohammed Hussein, a fisherman in the town of Marka, "If nothing is done, there soon won't be much fish left in our coastal waters."

In addition dangerous materials have been dumped in Somali waters; including nuclear and chemical waste. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah, the UN envoy to Somalia, told Johann Hari, "Somebody is dumping nuclear material here. There is also lead, and heavy metals such as cadmium and mercury – you name it."

As a result it is important to distinguish between attacks on foreign trawlers, and to a degree attacks on local trading vessels, which can arise from local disputes, and attacks on commercial merchant vessels in transit to Europe and Africa from the Middle East, India and S. E. Asia.  IML believes that Spanish and French fishermen, or the seamen of other nations which are thought to use extensive force, for example the United States, when taken, may be treated harshly and their lives may be threatened, but that similar treatment is unlikely to be meted out to other foreign seamen.

As far as the “business” of hijacking commercial shipping is concerned the rich pickings have attracted a host of unpleasant characters.  Jean-Michel Louboutin, executive director of police services at Interpol, said, October 2009, at the Interpol conference in Singapore, that the pirates operating off the coast of Somalia are being controlled by crime syndicates, including foreigners, lured by the multi-million-dollar ransoms. Interpol also stated that the pirates have acquired sophisticated weapons and tracking devices allowing them to extend their reach. The U.N. has previously noted the fact that pirate mother ships have been supported from Yemeni ports over the past few years, but there suggestions that the involvement of Yemenis in piracy is growing, as that country falls into growing intertribal conflict and civil war. Although an attack on a bulk carrier was thwarted on the 20 September 2009 by an embarked Yemeni Coastguard unit.  However, IML remains concerned that attacks supported by Yemenis may spread into Omani waters.

There is also the possibility, which cannot be proven, that the authorities in the Seychelles are afraid to deal harshly with pirates, because of the threat they represent to the country’s vital tourism industry.  On the 12^th October the Seychelles released a suspected Somali pirate ship and its 11 crew captured after the attack on the French trawlers, Drennec & Glenan, an indication that the Seychelles is not prepared to take risks with the Somalis. In September, Puntland accused the Seychelles Government of exchanging 23 suspect pirates caught in its waters for three of its citizens; the seamen arrived home on the 13^th September.  It is said that the pirates threatened to kill the Seychelles seamen.

In conclusion IML believes that there will be a more difficult period over the next four to five months and that pirate attacks are likely to increase over the New Year. There are new forces at work and the existing drivers behind piracy remain strong.  The existence of the international fleet has only served to redirect the areas of threat eastwards into the vast expanses of the Indian Ocean, which the international community lacks the resources to effectively patrol and protect.  IML is also concerned that the international community may lack the determination to deploy anti-piracy patrols over long periods of time.  The pirates are not going away, they are more resolute than ever, and the economic collapse of Somalia, driven by drought and conflict, means that the attractions of piracy will remain extremely strong, whatever the risks.

© Idarat Maritime Ltd. 2009 Not to be quoted without reference to the original.