On the 5th October George Friedman published an article on the U.S. website www.stratfor.com, in which he said, referring to recent reports that Russian scientists have been helping Iran develop a nuclear weapon and information on secret Iranian nuclear production facilities, “that the United States and Israel are leaking information already well known to the Iranians. They are telling Tehran that its deception campaign has been penetrated, and by extension are telling it that it faces military action — particularly if massive sanctions are impractical because of more Russian obstruction.”  He believes that the leaking of intelligence information into the public  domain “means that the Israelis expect a resolution in the very near future — the only reason they would have blown their penetration of the Russian-Iranian system.” Friedman furthermore concludes that, “the leaks this weekend have strikingly limited the options and timelines of the United States and Israel. They also have put the spotlight on Obama at a time when he already is struggling with health care and Afghanistan. History is rarely considerate of presidential plans, and in this case, the leaks have started to force Obama’s hand.”

Now reading this you may ask why Idarat Maritime is so interested in geopolitical developments in the Middle East. The key to our interest is that there is now a real possibility of a war between the United States, Israel and Iran.  This is a view also reflected in a recent (1st Oct) article in the Jewish Chronicle (published in London) when Anshel Pfeffer wrote that “Israel’s current strategic predicament is much more reminiscent of the Six-Day War. Then as now, the political leadership remains uncertain whether the looming threat — this time, from Iran — is indeed an existential one. They are divided between those who believe that international diplomacy should be given another chance and those convinced that Israel has no choice but to go it alone. A similar divide exists in the IDF general command between those who counsel caution and the officers who cannot wait for the politicians to give the command. In Washington, meanwhile, Israel’s diplomats and allies are feverishly lobbying for the elusive ‘green light’ from the White House.”  Pfeffer believes that any action is likely to take place around the time of Pesach 2010 (Passover), which falls on the 30th March in 2010.

In any military operations against Iran it is inevitable that Iran’s immediate response will be to take action to close the Straits of Homuz, and will probably try to occupy the the Musandam Peninsula, the piece of Omani territory which controls the Arabian side of the Straits.

It is our prediction that any military action could close the Straits of Hormuz to commercial traffic for a considerable period, possibly for many months. It would be wrong to underestimate the naval forces available to Iran, and we believe that in any conflict their men will fight with courage and conviction, this would not be a rerun of the Second Iraq War.

Of all the “chock points” in global maritime communications the Straits of Hormuz are the most sensitive, 40% of all traded oil passing though this narrow seaway.  Such a closure, for any time, would have profound ramifications boosting crude oil prices to previously unforeseen levels (think $200 barrel and upwards) and throwing a spanner into the world economy, ensuring that the present problems are greatly magnified, thus making a second wave of the downturn virtually inevitable.  This is a game with very high stakes and the threat of such large economic consequences means that in our opinion the United States will ultimately refuse to start a conflict with Iran, preferring to use diplomatic and economic pressure on the Iranian Government.

Our view is that a combination of old-fashioned sea-mines, which are cheap and effective, and Silkworm (the HY2 version) or Iranian produced Kowsar and Noor anti-ship missiles would close the Straits for a considerable period.  The Noor, which is based on the Chinese Yingji-82  is an extremely effective weapon with a high kill rate, achieved due to its small radar reflectivity, low attack flight path (only five to seven meters above the sea surface) and the efficient anti-jamming capability of its guidance equipment,  See http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/c-802.htm and http://www.iranfocus.com/en/iran-general-/iran-test-fires-new-cruise-missile-06601.html It was reported that 60 YJ-82s, were deployed in coastal batteries at Qeshm Island.  It is not (publically)known where the Noor is deployed.

U.S. anti-mine capability is poor and new mines could be laid from fast patrol craft and submarines, disrupting “cleared” passages. Mines are one area in which Iran had made advances. It can produce non-magnetic, free-floating, and remote-controlled mines. Russia has sold Iran 1,800 mines. Also, Iran has also purchased rocket-propelled rising mines from China. Iran has about 5,000 mines in store and up to 1,000 of these sea mines are of the Chinese EM11 bottom-influence mine; the EM31 moored mine; and the EM52 rocket-propelled rising mine. The Chinese have been the largest supplier of mines to Iran since 1998. See:  http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/iran/navy.htm and http://www.informationdissemination.net/2007/09/5th-fleet-focus-iranian-underwater.html

Iran also has three Type 877EKM  Kilo-class submarines (http://www.naval-technology.com/projects/kilo877/ )which can be effectively deployed against U.S. naval forces. The submarines are based at Chahbahar on the Gulf of Oman.  In addition there are a number of mini-submarines of different designs, more suitable for use in the Gulf.

If Iran effectively deploys its mine and anti-ship missiles effectively, which we believe it would, then we could see the Straits of Hormuz closed for a considerable period.  The shallow waters of the Gulf are far from ideal for submarine operations, but the same could equally be said of carrier operations so near to a hostile shore.  As in The Falklands the deployment of effective anti-ship missiles would be the greatest threat to naval and commercial shipping.

This article first appeared on www.idaratmaritime.com