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Is China’s Economy Growing as Fast as China’s GDP?

7 September 2017

by Michael Pettis If local governments and state-owned enterprises in China systematically invest in projects that are not economically justified, to the extent that these projects are not correctly marked to market, China’s reported GDP will be overstated by that amount, as will its total wealth [read more]

China is going to hit a wall

29 August 2017

CHRISTOPH GISIGER   Anne Stevenson-Yang, co-founder and research director at J Capital, warns that the monster bubble in the Chinese housing market is ripe to pop and that the Chinese currency will crash. It’s been exactly two years now since turmoil in China’s currency markets threw [read more]

A Review of “Grave New World”, by Stephen D King

4 July 2017

Published: Yale University Press (2017) I was looking forward to reading this book, Stephen D King has an excellent reputation and he has a key role at HSBC, while also advising the House of Commons Treasury Committee. The advance notices were also excellent and the author is writing about an [read more]

Does Cutting Taxes on the Wealthy Lead to Greater Growth?

26 June 2017

Michael Pettis Policies that increase income inequality can in some cases lead to higher savings, higher investment, and greater long-term growth. But, in other cases, such policies either reduce growth and increase unemployment or force up the debt burden. What determines which of these outcomes [read more]

Guaranteeing Employees Against Losses

15 June 2017

MICHAEL PETTIS A number of Chinese companies are trying to shore up their stock prices with programs that encourage employees to buy shares and ensuring them against losses. These programs have implications about leverage in China and about the way losses may be distributed within the banking [read more]

A U.S. Retreat on Global Trade Will Not Lead to a Shift in Power

16 December 2016

MICHAEL PETTIS Rejecting the Trans-Pacific Partnership should not mean the rejection altogether by Washington of the very idea of a stable, rules-based trading system. The world is better off with such a regime. The very first on the list of executive actions that his administration would implement [read more]

Climate spirals

14 December 2016

Effectively communicating climate change is a challenge. The animated climate spiral is a different way to show the historically observed changes and resonates with a broad audience. The original version quickly went viral, being seen millions of times on facebook and twitter. A version was even [read more]

China: Choosing More Debt, More Unemployment, Or Transfers

20 November 2016

Michael Pettis China’s success will depend Beijing’s ability to centralize power, to begin to sell off government assets, to rein in credit growth, and to accept much lower GDP growth rates. SUMMARY I have often written in this blog and elsewhere about the three policy choices Beijing faces as [read more]
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